Covid19 & Laws of Mathematics / limitations of modelling

What if Naseem Taleb and all experts of gloom & doom turn out to Malthus of our time?

While Taleb is a super genius guy, but he is extremely wired towards black swans or extreme events. The important thing to remember about models is that in the ned they are mere mathematical models only.

On Maths, remember what Einstein said
“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”

Hence while it is good to have black swan people by your side but not as the main advisor as when it comes to the fund performance, it is not Naseem Taleb who has given consistent high returns since 1988 but Jim Simmons!

So beware of all maths, fat tails and models as they do not account for the human spirit, evolving immunity/resilience and innovation.

In the end, Malthus despite all models turned out to be super wrong.

Again remember, 90% of infected people do not need any treatment and get fine without any medical intervention and actual numbers are far below than projected models.